How reliable is the habitat suitability index as a predictor of great crested newt presence or absence?

The application of a habitat suitability index (HSI) assessment to predict the use ponds by great crested newts (Triturus cristatus) is commonly used in association with distribution and monitoring projects. Such projects are often inform development planning decision making. However, this type frequently misused, misinterpreted. We large, commercially collected environmental DNA (eDNA) survey for newt pond occupancy (489 ponds) to; (1) assess whether it appropriate low HSI scores rule out occupancy, (2) discuss high identify importance species and, (3) explore eDNA detection method. conclude that there no evidence support ruling based on scores. conventional view above 0.7 somewhat supported data. Both direct observational methodologies suffer from sampling error these need be acknowledged analysis large data sets.